A redrawing of the Red/Blue map in November 2010?

inégalités , culture , élections , race , richesse , États-Unis

In the United States, the November midterm elections will most likely be a success for Republicans in Congress. Does it mean that the 2008 electoral map is already outdated? Does it definitely discard the hypothesis that 2008 was the beginning of a long term political realignment in American politics?

Andrew Gelman is professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University (New York). He is the author of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State. Why Americans Vote the Way They Do, published by Princeton University Press in 2008.

La Vie des idées interviewed him in June 2010 at the end of a year spent teaching at the Institut d’Etudes Politiques, to discuss American politics in the light of the coming midterm elections.

1. Many analysts have emphasized that there was a redrawing of the electoral map in 2008. To what extent will the November midterm elections affect this red-blue map? How long will the newly blue states remain blue?

Andrew Gelman (1)

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2. Do you think the predictable loss of the Democrats in November definitely disqualifies the hypothesis that Obama’s election was the beginning of a realignment in American politics, that is a period of dominance for the Democratic party due to favourable demographics?

Andrew Gelman (2)

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3. Some analysts consider that voting patterns are best explained by economic factors, others by values. How do you position yourself in the debate on culture wars vs. economic wars?

Andrew Gelman (3)

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4. In your book Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State, you renew the ongoing debate on the correlation between income and vote, showing it is much stronger in poor states. In light of this correlation, would you say that there currently is an increasing economic polarization in American politics?

Andrew Gelman (4)

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5. To what extent do you think internal mobility and the geographical concentration of like-minded voters (in some sort of “self-sorting” mechanism) increases the polarization of American politics?

Andrew Gelman (5)

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Video by Ariel Suhamy.

by Pauline Peretz, 22 October 2010

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To quote this article :

Pauline Peretz, « A redrawing of the Red/Blue map in November 2010?. Five questions to Andrew Gelman about the coming midterm elections », Books and Ideas , 22 October 2010. ISSN : 2105-3030. URL : https://laviedesidees.fr/A-redrawing-of-the-Red-Blue-map-in

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